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A |     CABO SAN LUCAS, Mexico -- Residents of Mexico’s Los Cabos resorts rushed to prepare as Hurricane Norma headed toward the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula for an expected landfall Saturday, while in the Atlantic, Tammy grew into a hurricane and threatened to batter the islands of the Lesser Antilles. Businesses in Cabo San Lucas nailed up sheets of plywood over their windows and government personnel hung up banners warning people not to try to cross gullies and stream beds, after Hurricane Norma regained strength and once again became a major storm Friday.Baja California Sur Gov. Victor Manuel Castro urged people to stay at home.“Nobody should leave their house after six, seven in the evening," Castro said. "Nobody should go out.”In the Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Tammy had winds of 80 mph (130 kph), and hurricane warnings were issued for the islands of Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, and St. Kitts and Nevis.The center said Norma had 120 mph (195 kph) maximum sustained winds and was centered about 145 miles (235 kilometers) south of Cabo San Lucas. The Category 3 storm was moving north-northwest at 9 mph (15 kph), and the center said its outer bands of rain were already reaching the Baja peninsula.Hotels in Los Cabos, which are largely frequented by foreign tourists, remained about three-quarters full and there was no major move by visitors to leave, Baja California Sur state tourism secretary Maribel Collins said.With rain already falling in Los Cabos, some flights in and out were canceled Friday, there was no way out anyway. Airports will be closed Saturday, according to the local civil defense office.The local hotel association estimated there were about 40,000 tourists still in Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo on Friday.A couple from San Diego walked through the largely deserted streets of Cabo San Lucas on Friday. Because their sports fishing tournament had been postponed until next week, they had little choice but to stay. The local port was closed to navigation as a precaution. At the marina in Cabo San Lucas, José Ceseña was hauling out of the water the boat he usually uses to ferry tourists around on tours. With the port closed and a hurricane coming, he said it wasn’t worth risking his craft.Homero Blanco, the state commander of the National Guard, said beaches at the resort had been ordered closed and Guard troops were sent to clear people from the seashore.“This morning there were a few people on the beach when we cleared it,” Blanco said. “We invited them to leave.” The federal government posted 500 marines to the resort to help with storm preparations, and municipal officials said as many as 39 emergency shelters could be opened if needed.A hurricane warning was issued for the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and the forecast track would take a weakened Norma toward the mainland of Mexico’s western Pacific coast as a tropical storm.Norma was expected to weaken somewhat as it neared land, but not as much as originally forecast. In the Atlantic, Hurricane Tammy was about 55 miles (85 kilometers) east of Martinique and 135 miles (220 kilometers) southeast of the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe and was moving west-northwest at 9 mph (15 kph).Tammy was expected to remain at hurricane strength and even strengthen slightly as it moved toward the Lesser Antilles through Saturday passing by Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda. Both Martinique and Guadeloupe are French overseas departments.The hurricane center said in a report that “heavy rainfall and flooding (are) likely over much of the Lesser Antilles.”Hurricane warnings were issued for the islands of Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, and St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.___Follow AP’s climate coverage at: https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment。    当前，百年变局加速演变，国际形势变乱交织。在充满不确定性的环境下，国际油价风险对国内实体经济和金融体系构成严重的外溢冲击，风险防范形势日趋严峻。立足全球不确定性背景，解析国际油价冲击对中国股市的影响机制，已成为保障能源安全与维护金融稳定的紧迫现实课题。　　中国矿业大学丁志华教授、刘振华副教授团队所著《不确定性视角下国际油价对中国股市的影响研究》一书，聚焦石油金融前沿问题，从不确定性新视角系统揭示国际油价对中国股市的影响机制，为政府和监管部门识别国际油价风险传导路径、完善风险治理提供了重要参考。

B | 　　纵观全书，其特色与创新主要体现在以下三个方面：　　一是理论视角新颖。该书创新性提出了经济政策不确定性在原油和股市联动关系中兼具内在渠道和外生冲击双重属性理论，区分了经济政策不确定性的内外部来源，揭示了内外部经济政策不确定性在油价冲击影响股市关系中的差异化作用机理，拓展了原油与股市联动关系的理论视角。　　二是研究内容丰富。该书从整体市场和行业股市两个维度出发，不仅识别了不同经济政策不确定性水平下原油与股市信息溢出的关键路径、关键行业、关联结构及动态演变，还考察了不确定性条件下油价信息对股市波动的预测能力，丰富了原油与股市影响关系的研究内容。　　三是研究方法前沿。该书综合运用计量经济学、管理科学、网络拓扑理论等多学科理论，提出了包含马尔科夫区制转移过程的混频数据模型，能够识别不同市场状态下政策不确定性的异质性影响，丰富了政策评估和风险管理研究的方法工具。

C | 　　全书结构合理、思路清晰、数据翔实、论证严密，提出了新理论，发展了新方法，取得了新成果，是能源金融交叉领域的一项高质量研究成果。该书的出版，不仅丰富完善了石油金融风险管理的理论体系，也为中国防范国际油价冲击风险、保障能源安全提供了有力的决策参考。（作者 周德群 系南京航空航天大学二级教授）。

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